HOT Texas Real Estate and Mortgage updates

January employment data didn’t disappoint in terms of the consensus versus the reality; as we always remind ahead of the monthly report, it generally never comes near the forecasts. January no exception.

Why the reversal in weaker headlines? It is due to the benchmark revisions BLS reported along with the monthly report; and the momentary thought that the weak current data will keep the Fed on hold for additional tapering. 

The first Friday of each month should be named Volatility Day, might even be a holiday so investors and traders can take the time to evaluate the always uncertain employment report. It is extremely rare that BLS data comes anywhere close to what economists estimate. 

Treasuries and MBSs are a little better, so too is the stock market this morning so far. The employment report provided something for everyone for the moment. When traders dove deeper into the meaning of the data the initial reaction is that employment isn’t as bad as the headlines would suggest. The data this morning is more confusing than it normally is on the wild data, but regardless of what anyone thinks it is critical to go with the markets themselves. 

The economic outlook remains in limbo from the perspective of recent data; some strong, some weaker. The economy isn’t growing rapidly but equally not slipping much. The weather factor remains an issue but is evenly divided in terms of its impact; some saying it has had little impact while others see it has a factor in slowing growth, at least temporarily. Market uncertainty is always a byproduct of employment data, best to focus more on market movement today rather than trying to make assessments on what the data actually reflected. Always pay more attention to what traders and investors are actually doing rather than all the talking heads and media thoughts. 

At this point there is more reason to float your rate there to lock. Stay tuned.