Last Friday the bond and mortgage
markets improved a little, early this morning
the bond and mortgage markets started weaker---about the same price changes
that occurred Friday. Markets still focusing on Janet Yellen’s remarks last
week that the Fed may begin increasing interest rates as early as next Spring,
about a year earlier than what was generally thought prior to her comments.
Since her statement the debate has intensified between those that say no way
the Fed will move that soon and those that concur and even say the Fed is
likely to stay too long with low rates that will set off inflation. There are
no answers, no consensus. Job gains in the food service industry are not jobs that fuel strong economic growth. Investors and businesses were taken aback on her comments, increasing interest rates about a year ahead of what was previously expected; yet even she isn’t that convinced; she also went on to say "The general assessment is that even after we've had an accommodative monetary policy for long enough to get the economy back on track in the sense of meeting our objectives, the stance of policy that will be appropriate to accomplish that will be easier or involve somewhat lower than would be normal short-term interest rates."
This week has a lot of Fed
officials speaking, that should add to the confusion
with varying opinions and outlooks.
Although today there are no
economic reports, this week has a plate full.
Tomorrow three housing sector reports and through the rest of the week a number
of key data points. Q4 final GDP on Tuesday is expected to be revised higher
for the second time; on the preliminary report last month GDP was reported up
2.4%, the final report is expected up 2.7%.
This Week’s Economic Calendar:
Tuesday,
9:00 am Jan Case/Shiller (+13.3% yr/yr, +0.7% m/m)
Jan FHFA housing price index (+0.4%)
10:00 am Feb new home sales (-6.0%, 440K units)
March consumer confidence index (78.4 from 78.1 in Jan)
1:00 pm $32B 2 yr note auction
Wednesday,
7:00 am weekly MBA mortgage applications
8:30 am Feb durable goods orders (+1.0%, ex transportation +0.3%)
1:00 pm $35B 5 yr note auction
Thursday,
8:30 am weekly jobless claims (+3K to 323K)
Q4 final GDP (+2.7% from +2.4% on the prelim report last month)
10:00 am Feb pending home sales from NAR (-0.8%)
1:00 pm $29B 7 yr note auction
Friday,
8:30 am Feb personal income and spending (income+0.2%, spending +0.3%)
9:55 am March final U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index (80.5 from 79.9)
Tuesday,
9:00 am Jan Case/Shiller (+13.3% yr/yr, +0.7% m/m)
Jan FHFA housing price index (+0.4%)
10:00 am Feb new home sales (-6.0%, 440K units)
March consumer confidence index (78.4 from 78.1 in Jan)
1:00 pm $32B 2 yr note auction
Wednesday,
7:00 am weekly MBA mortgage applications
8:30 am Feb durable goods orders (+1.0%, ex transportation +0.3%)
1:00 pm $35B 5 yr note auction
Thursday,
8:30 am weekly jobless claims (+3K to 323K)
Q4 final GDP (+2.7% from +2.4% on the prelim report last month)
10:00 am Feb pending home sales from NAR (-0.8%)
1:00 pm $29B 7 yr note auction
Friday,
8:30 am Feb personal income and spending (income+0.2%, spending +0.3%)
9:55 am March final U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index (80.5 from 79.9)
If you have not locked your interest rate I would suggest doing so. The markets may see some big swings coming up and you don't want to be on the losing end. Lock today and take advantage of our FREE interest rate float down in the event rates decrease after you lock.
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