The bond and mortgage markets
opened weak this morning following a flat day yesterday,
at 9:00am EST the 10 at 2.74% and MBS prices down 14 bps from yesterday’s
closes. Weekly jobless claims at 8:30 were expected to be down 10K, as reported
claims were down 26K to 323K, claims now the lowest in 3 months.
The
key technical level for the 10 yr note and mortgage rates is at 2.77%, a close above that rate will turn the present slight bullish bias to an
outright sell signal. Fundamentally we expect interest rates will increase and
move to test the 3.00% level on the 10 and send 30 yr mortgage rates up 20
basis points in rate over the next several months. The caveat is, that when we
finally can assess the strength of the economy absent the weather and the data
reflects continued economic weakness, if that is the case rates obviously will
decline. Tomorrow’s employment report is an important first step; estimates
remain that non-farm jobs increased 154K and private jobs +165K with the
unemployment rate unchanged from last month at 6.6%.
Stay tuned to tomorrows reports. I am suggesting to all my clients that you lock your rate if you have not already done so. Follow my BLOG for all your real estate updates for Houston, The Woodlands, Spring and Conroe Texas.
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