Market Update and Calendar

March retail sales at 8:30 this morning were much better than forecasts; sales expected 1.0% overall were up 1.1% but ex auto sales were thought to be up 0.5% however sales were up 0.7%. The better report bolstered the stock indexes and took a little out of treasuries and MBSs. 

In recent trading in the equity markets there have been a few days when the key indexes opened better but by the end of the session indexes slipped. Today a better start, how the stocks close will have direct influence on how the interest rate markets close. The recent decline in rates and stock markets may be running out of steam in the immediate future.

  

How low rates will fall though isn’t likely to be much more from present levels unless the Russian/Ukraine turmoil increases to actual civil war with armed confrontations increasing. In the absence of geo-political events the treasury markets are approaching lows that will take a lot to penetrate
This week’s Calendar;
       Monday,
           8:30 am March retail sales (as reported +1.1%, ex auto sales +0.7%, Feb revised from +0.3% to +0.7%)
           10:00 am Feb business inventories (expected up 0.6%, as reported
      Tuesday,
           8:30 am March CPI (+0.1%, ex food and energy +0.1%)
                        Apr NY Empire State manufacturing index (7.5 from 5.6)
           10:00 am Apr NAHB housing market index (49 from 47 in March)
      Wednesday,
           7:00 am weekly MBA mortgage applications data
           8:30 am March housing starts and permits (starts +6.0% to 965K; permits -0.8% to 1.010 mil)
           9:15 am March industrial production and capacity utilization ( production +0.4%, capacity utilization 78.7% from 78.4% in Feb)
      Thursday,
          8:30 am weekly jobless claims (+12K to 312K)
          10:00 am Apr Philly Fed business index (10.0 from 9.0 in March
      Good Friday,
           Bond and MBS markets closed; stocks open
          10:00 am March leading economic indicators (+0.5%)

Because there is more pressure on the market I am suggesting to lock your rate. Chances are Russia will not go to war and that is one of the only present risks to the market. Follow my BLOG for all your local Real Estate and Mortgage Interest rate updates for Spring, The Woodlands, Houston, Conroe, San Antonio, Dallas & Austin.