It looks like Spring is close behind The Woodlands, but exceeds some of the national averages.
A much better open in the bond and
mortgage markets this morning, even with October PPI stronger than forecasts.
Oct PPI expected to be down 0.1% increased 0.2%; the core (ex food and energy)
expected up 0.1% jumped 0.4%. Yr/yr PPI +1.5%, the lowest since last Feb; yr/yr
core up 1.8% from +1.6% in Sept. On the surface wholesale prices are
increasing, at least in Oct. The increase due to the largest gain in services
since July 2013.
Better news from Germany this
morning, investor confidence increased for the first time in 11 months.
In Japan, after retreating into recession on increases in taxes, the prime
minister today said he would call for early elections to measure voters
confidence and suspended a sale tax increase. Both the yen and euro currencies
rallied this morning. Europe’s stock markets also trading better.
17 days and still counting;
the 10 yr and MBS markets have not moved. The key 10 has been in a very narrow
range since the end of October, trading between 2.38% and 2.30% with the
majority of trades between 2.36% and 2.32%. All technical we monitor are still
throwing off neutral readings. Early this morning the 10 fell to 2.30% briefly
(5 minutes) but once again didn’t attract enough momentum to crack the rock-hard
resistance. This kind of narrow trading usually leads to a big move once the
narrow range is broken. Most economists remain confident that the 10 and
mortgage rates will increase by the end of the year; the reason of course is
that the Fed is going to increase rates sometime in 2015. Most of the talking
head Fed officials are saying that the FF rate will be increased by the middle
of 2015. We have to go with the flow now, however we have not given up on a
major stock market decline soon; maybe not this year, but it is coming.
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