HOUSTON BY NUMBERS --REAL ESTATE--
16,749 Homes currently for sale
7,933 Home Pending sale
3,557 homes sold since Dec 1st 2014
Early this morning the US stock
indexes were trading better, the 10 yr note yield
at 2.18% +1 bp and at 8:30 30 yr MBS price -14 bps. Holiday trading this week
and next. Last week’s run up in the stock market didn’t break the rate markets,
investors and traders still willing to hold treasuries, supporting MBS prices.
U.S. stock-index futures better this morning after the biggest three-day jump
since 2011, amid investor optimism that the Federal Reserve will continue to
support the economy. Treasuries holding well amid investor optimism that
inflation isn’t going increase next year.
U.S. equities jumped 5% in the
past three sessions as Fed Chair Janet Yellen said
the central bank will likely hold key rates near zero at least through the
first quarter, even as the U.S. economy strengthens. December has been volatile
to say the least; oil prices and Russia’s currency collapse took the equity
market down and initially wiped out $1 trillion of value in stocks to begin the
month. The fear factor evaporated quickly after the FOMC meeting a Yellen’s
comments; stock indexes have recovered all those losses in the last two weeks.
Equities rallied around the world after the central bank said it will be
patient on the timing of a rate increase. Yellen said any spillover from the
situation in Russia is likely to be small. In the meantime interest rates have
held steady compared to the volatility in equities. We don’t expect equity
market volatility to end anytime soon, the beginning of the year likely will
start with increased volatility after the next two weeks that should cool off
somewhat from recent volatile trading.
10:00 am; Nov existing home sales,
expected at 520 mil from 5.26 mil, sales dropped 6.1% to 493 mil. Yr/yr up
2.1%, $205,300 average sales price +5.0% yr/yr. Based on the pace of sales
there is a 5.1 month supply. At 1:00 Treasury will begin this week’s borrowing
with $27B of 2 yr notes.
Looking forward; the 50% decline
in the price of oil has yet to have any serious effects on the economies of the
Mid-East. Huge amounts of reserves keeping those richer countries’
citizens calm but if crude doesn’t rebound next year the loss of revenues may
filter to less services for people in those countries that remain unaffected so
far. The Mid-East is already in serious turmoil with tribes of old rising up to
reclaim lands and/or convert others to their specific tribal rules. If the
Saudis, Kuwaitis, and other Persian Gulf monarchies become unable to transfer
some of the oil wealth to the populous it may be next year’s geo-political
story.
No comments:
Post a Comment