ADP reported the March private
jobs this morning, markets were expecting about 200K, we were looking for 193K;
as reported private jobs increased 191K in March based on ADP data.
February jobs increased 178K, revised from 139K originally reported. In the
guts of the report, ADP said 164K new jobs were in the service sector;
generally not jobs that fuel stronger economic growth. Manufacturers, builders
and other goods producers added 28,000 workers in March, today’s ADP figures
showed. Employment in construction rose by 20,000 while factories added 5,000
jobs. Prior to the 8:15 report the 10 yr note rate was up 1 bp to 2.77% and 30
yr MBS price down 11 bps from yesterday’s close, the stock index futures were
better.
The
10 is sitting at 2.80%, a very critical chart point. The note has not been above 2.80% since Jan 23rd; a solid break above
it will set a target of 3.00% and take mortgage rates up 18 bps in rate. There
isn’t anything now through the rest of the session that could move markets
much; from now until 8:30 Friday when BLS releases the official employment data
for March the bond and stock market are likely to trade in narrow ranges.
I am still suggesting to lock your interest rate and to take advantage of any rate float downs using our industry exclusive float down. Call or email me if you need more info.
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